2021 was such a roller coaster that making predictions for 2022 feels somewhat daunting. But as venture capitalists our jobs is to make bets on the future, so here it goes. Key predictions for 2022:
#1 Unit economics come back into fashion: 2021 saw frenzied deal volume and unprecedented valuations. A lot of this was driven by changes that took place so rapidly (sky rocketing e-commerce adoption, remote working, etc.) that many funds went into full FOMO. Our prediction is that 2022 will see investors sharpening their pencils on valuations, and hence we are unlikely to see the meteoric growth in valuations we saw in 2021.
The best case outcome for valuations is that any adjustment happens gradually, and in the context of sustainable economic models. No matter what happens, it is as important as ever for founders to keep in mind that the best immunity to market volatility is gained by the vaccine of solid unit economics.
#2 Embedded fintech in reverse: In 2021 we saw lots of non-fintech players using embedded finance to monetize their customer bases. A classic example of this would be a non-fintech company, such as a marketplace, using embedded finance to create lending or buy-now-pay-later solutions. Another example is a company like Shopify making a lot of its revenue from payments, etc.
A new trend we are expecting to see more of in 2022 is the reverse of this – companies going fintech first, and then building non-fintech businesses on top of this. One such example would be a company using fintech tools to initially attract customers, and then building marketplaces (or other non-fintech business models) on top of those customers.
It is also worth noting that these trends in many cases can intertwine in many cycles. So in the first cycle, a company can start with some legal tech to attract a customer base. Then, in the second cycle, the company can enrich their customer proposition and monetization by adding embedded finance such as payments, currency exchange, or mortgages. This then deepens customer engagement and attracts new customers that value these tools. And finally, in the third cycle, having achieved stronger customer acquisition momentum and higher monetization, the company can develop a marketplace proposition, where the customers start trading with each other, creating a strong competitive moat in the process.
#3 War for talent heats up: Many of the top startups and growth companies are now flush with cash after having gone through a landmark year, and they need to deliver results. Expect the war for talent to turn into a battle royale!
Being able to attract top talent was the key differentiating advantage in 2021, and this trend will only get amplified in 2022. There are of course a lot of implications for this. For example, many companies will increasingly start looking across international borders, and companies that provide the infrastructure for such remote hiring and remote working will continue to benefit. Another beneficiary will be companies whose culture is better adapted to the ways of working that are quickly emerging. So expect to see a lot of continued innovation in work cultures and the “future of work”.
#4 More regulation and polarization in crypto: The crypto world will start to increasingly bifurcate, with some countries and regulators becoming increasingly more crypto friendly, and some increasing their level of regulation. Expect lots of continued debate within developed economies on how crypto should be treated and what exactly is and is not permissible.
#5 Big brother steps in: While developed countries will look to regulate crypto more on the one hand, we will also see Western central banks more openly committing to creating their own digital currencies. UK, Sweden, the ECB and many others are working on this frantically as Covid accelerated the disappearance of cash, and central banks need a currency they can control directly.
As those of you familiar with the banking system know, central banks basically control the money supply indirectly via the banks that they regulate with all the monetary policy tools they have, while controlling it directly via the actual money they print. Even before Covid struck, cash was increasingly disappearing from developed economies (especially in places like Sweden), and hence that one part of the money supply that central banks used to control directly was becoming less and less relevant as a policy transmission tool.
As a result, central bankers will want to have a digital currency they have total control over, and we can expect lots of new announcements around this in 2022. This will make lots of new monetary policy innovations possible – for example when stimulus is needed it will be much easier for central banks to create more money supply by simply transferring new digital currency into the accounts of all eligible citizens.
Interestingly, this will also make things like highly negative interest rates and very strong consumption incentives much more easier. One example that has been talked about is that central banks would be able to hand out a digital currency that “expires” if not spent within a certain timeframe, thus creating a very strong stimulus for demand.
Undoubtedly, 2022 will continue seeing us living in interesting times. No matter what the future has in store for us, I wish a healthy and peaceful new year to everybody.